Frontier market intelligence, engineered to know its edge.

Continuous quantitative analysis across nine institutional data sources, probabilistic forecasting and disciplined Kelly sizing. Live calls on majors and prediction markets, sized and risk-governed before they publish.

Sapere/ intelligenceseq 01 · 05
Consensus · BTCconv 0.63
LONG
LONGtrendLONGmomentumHOLDmacro
DerivativesOKX OI +6.4% · funding +0.012%/8h
Order flowCoinbase tape · buy imbalance +12%
Forecast24h ↑ +2.1% · p90 +6.7
+0.42Composite
2.5% × 2×Sized
ClearedRisk gate
9
Institutional feeds, every call
60+
Markets scanned, every cycle
69%
Graded win rate
24/7
Autonomous operation

The math makes the call. An adversarial ensemble pressure-tests it before capital moves.

Deterministic signal math runs the desk: derivatives positioning, order flow, options, macro and on-chain data, scored into a composite around the clock. Role-specialised analysts then pressure-test each thesis; votes are weighted by track record, and a well-earned dissent can override the room.

Consensus
Reasoned, not guessed.
Role-specialised analysts argue the thesis. When it doesn't hold, the system passes instead of forcing a trade.
Analyst roster
Ranked by record.
A reputation economy weights every vote by the analyst's track record, and that standing climbs or falls with every closed call.
Market scan
Scan everything, surface what matters.
Hundreds of markets scored around the clock; only the few with genuine edge surface as live signals.
Performance · 30d
Visible from day one.
Every call, its reasoning, and its outcome, logged and on the record.

One autonomous pipeline, from raw data to published call.

Seven stages, end to end, around the clock: gathered, forecast, debated, decided, sized, executed, learned. The same discipline on every market, every cycle.

dossier / BTC9 sources
DerivativesOI +6.4% 24h · funding +0.012%/8h
DeFiChain TVL +1.8% 7d · stables +0.4%
MacroDXY 104.2 · 2s10s −0.18 · VIX 14.1
Order flowAggressor buy imbalance +12% · tape hot
OptionsATM IV 47% · 25Δ skew −2.3 · put bid
FilingsMSTR 8-K filed · no holdings change
Dossier compiled · nine sources, one brief

Assemble the dossier

Nine institutional sources, per asset, every cycle.

Derivatives positioning, DeFi flows, macro regime, on-chain stress, order-flow tape, options skew, corporate filings and historical analogues, synthesised into one structured brief before any model reasons over it.

forecast / BTCp10–p90
1h↑ +0.3% · band 1.4%
4h↑ +0.9% · band 3.6%
12h↑ +1.6% · band 6.1%
24h↑ +2.1% · band 9.2%
Directional bias ↑ · confidence moderate

Project the trajectory

Purpose-built for price forecasting.

A dedicated time-series foundation model projects a multi-horizon path with p10–p90 confidence bands. When the model degrades, the system says so; it never renders a guess as a forecast.

consensus / sessionpanel
Analyst · rank 2LONG · conviction 0.71
Analyst · rank 5LONG · conviction 0.58
Analyst · rank 9HOLD · conviction 0.44 · dissent
Consensus LONG · reputation-weighted 0.63

Argue the thesis

Specialist analysts vote, with dissent on the record.

A panel of role-specialised analysts, each drawn from a distinct model lineage, reaches an independent verdict. Standing earns each analyst its say, and a highly-rated minority can override the room.

decision / gatethreshold
Edge+5.8% vs market-implied
Thresholdedge > costs + risk
Uncertaintyband 9.2% · acceptable
Reviewed 24h28 setups · 3 acted
Edge clears the bar · proceed

Act only on a real edge

Most candidates are declined here. No edge, no trade.

A verdict is not yet a position. The weighted edge has to clear a hard threshold once costs and uncertainty are priced in; anything short of the bar is logged as a deliberate pass, never forced into a trade. Most reviewed setups end right here. The restraint to do nothing is the cheapest edge there is.

sizing / kellyKelly
Edge+5.8% vs market-implied
Raw Kelly0.21
Appliedfractional · capped
Capsposition + cluster · within
Drawdown−3.6% · within pause band
Final stake 5.0% · Kelly, clamped

Size with discipline

Fractional Kelly, capped, and drawdown-governed.

The edge is turned into a stake by fractional Kelly, then clamped by hard position and correlation limits and a peak-to-trough drawdown pause. The discipline that separates a good call from a good P&L.

executionopen
SideLONG · 2× leverage
Entry$67,420
Stop$65,180 · ATR-based
Target$70,790 · ATR-based
Size5.0% of book
LONG BTC · filled · governed

Place and govern

ATR-bracketed, wick-aware, monitored every tick.

The position opens with ATR-derived stops and targets, a liquidation guard, and a wick-aware exit check every thirty seconds. From open to close, the full reasoning trail stays on the record.

reflection / memorymemory
OutcomeSOL long closed +4.2% · alpha +0.04
Lessonwritten · tagged to regime
Standinganalyst reputations updated by outcome
Recall12 similar regimes · 67% resolved up
Influencereputation shapes the next vote
Sharper on the next call

Remember, and get sharper

Every outcome scored, written to memory, recalled next time.

When a position closes, the outcome is scored and saved as a lesson, tagged to the market regime it came from. Each analyst's standing rises or falls with its record, and that reputation shapes how much its vote counts next time. Meet a similar setup again and the firm brings everything it learned the last time.

Institutional-grade data, distilled into decisions.

Nine sources distilled into the signals that actually move price, and the gates that keep risk in check.

Order flow · tape

Aggressor imbalance and large prints across the book, by the minute.

Calibration · brier

Every resolved call scored against the market's own price. Alpha, not bravado.

Risk gates · governor

Six deterministic checks stand between a verdict and a filled order.

Coverage · scan

Markets scored continuously. Only the few with genuine edge surface as signals.

The dossier behind every decision. One settled call, replayed to the second.

The nine-source dossier compiled each cycle, and the anatomy of a settled call from first read to final grade.

Market dossier · BTC9 sources
DERIVATIVESOI +6.4% 24h · funding +0.012%/8h
DEFIChain TVL +2.1% 7d · stables +0.4%
MACRODXY 104.1 · 2s10s −0.18 · VIX 14.1
ON-CHAINMempool 36 vMB · hashrate +1.1%
ORDER FLOWAggressor buy +10% · tape steady
OPTIONSATM IV 49% · 25Δ skew −2.3
FILINGSMSTR 8-K filed · no holdings change
REGIME20 analogues · 65% win · +3.1% median
FORECAST↑ +-0.0% 24h · p90 +4.6
SynthesisLONGconviction 0.71 · edge +2.4% vs market

Nine reads, weighted by each source’s calibration; the blended edge clears the cost-and-risk bar.

Anatomy of a callsettled · replay
T+0.0sDOSSIERnine sources compiled · one brief
T+2.1sFORECASTprobabilistic path · 24h horizon
T+3.4sCONSENSUSspecialists argue · LONG · conv 0.71
T+3.6sRISKsix gates checked · cleared
T+3.8sPUBLISHEDtimestamped to the public record
T+24hGRADEDtarget hit · +3.2%WIN
3.8ssignal to published call
24/7the desk never closes
Live activity
CALLBTC long settled +4.2% · target hit
FORECASTBTC 24h ↑ +2.1% · band 9.2%
PREDICTResolved YES · alpha +0.04 vs mkt

An open, verifiable track record. Built one settled call at a time.

Every call is logged and scored the moment it resolves. How the firm reaches them stays proprietary: an edge built over thousands of graded decisions, and sharpened with every one.

Track record · settled callslive · graded ledger
Open the terminal
Nine sources on every call.Derivatives, on-chain, macro, order flow, options and filings, distilled into one decision.
69% win rate.182W / 81L settled. Every trade and forecast, graded against the market's own price.
Every call logged before it resolves.Timestamped and public the moment it’s made; nothing rewritten after the outcome is known.

Get the intelligence behind every call.

Early access is open. Founding members lock their price before launch.

Observer
Freethe public record, always

The firm in the open. Watch the track record build, on the record.

  • Live public track record
  • Signals on a 24h delay
  • BTC & ETH headline dossiers
  • Weekly intelligence recap
Start watching
Analyst
$99/mo founding · then $149 · locked for life

Real-time intelligence and full reasoning for the individual trader.

  • Private Telegram signals channel, every call live
  • Full 9-source dossiers
  • Probabilistic price forecasts
  • Consensus & dissent reasoning
  • All coverage + full history
Desk
$399/mo founding · then $599 · up to 5 seats

Everything in Analyst, wired into how a desk actually trades.

  • Everything in Analyst
  • API access & webhooks
  • On-demand custom dossiers
  • Priority low-latency alerts
  • Up to 5 seats
Terminal
Customfrom $2,500/mo

Programmatic intelligence for quant desks and fintechs.

  • Full dossier & forecast API
  • High rate limits + SLA
  • White-label dossiers
  • Dedicated support

Dare to know what the market is about to do.